By: Caravelle
O_o How old is that quote by Ernst Mayr exactly ? New fossils are being found all the time. Or are you in the “every time we find a missing link it creates two more gaps” school of thought ? Even in...
View ArticleBy: Jeff
Caravelle, The Ernst Mayer quote is 2004. He isn’t saying anything rocket science to anyone either. But you’re missing the point about teleology. We don’t know that common descent can work...
View ArticleBy: Jeff
… and this is another problem with your inference that natural evolution is PROBABLY the cause of nested hierarchies: “the point is what’s relevant here isn’t whether something was manufactured or not,...
View ArticleBy: Caravelle
And how do you know we found a tool in the Cambrian ? They don’t come with labels. We know because the person who found them tells us they found them in Cambrian strata. If that person is a competent...
View ArticleBy: Jeff
I’m gonna be out of town as of this morning for a week. If I get internet access where I’m staying, I’ll check back here before next week. I would like to know whether you meant Homo erectus, modern...
View ArticleBy: Joshua
@Caravelle: I suppose you think all of Cremo’s evidence is just stuff found by one random layperson reported secondhand, then? Clearly you’re taking this hypothetical of mine way too seriously and...
View ArticleBy: Ariel
Joshua, This is the problem with arguing from ignorance–what you claim to know today based on a lack of information could be completely blown out of the water tomorrow by a new find. If I get sick...
View ArticleBy: Caravelle
Joshua: Frankly, none of what you just said even addresses what I’ve said. Sorry. I was reacting to your first sentence and trying to explain myself better, since you were calling “patently false” a...
View ArticleBy: Caravelle
Jeff: The fact that animals, though, with large differences between them, still fall into the relevant kind of tree MEANS that such trees don’t always form because of slight variations between its...
View ArticleBy: Caravelle
And for the rest of your posts : The Ernst Mayer quote is 2004. He isn’t saying anything rocket science to anyone either. Except for anyone who actually read the source of that quote. In it he says he...
View ArticleBy: Jeff
Caravelle: But would you look at the results of round 7 and say “X111213 is 12% different from X222134, therefore they can’t have resulted from a process where each X is only 1% different from its...
View ArticleBy: Ariel
@Joshua: I’ve been thinking about Bayesian evidence for evolution for the last week, and this got long, so I’m going to split this up into several posts. Hopefully this will also answer Jeff’s question...
View ArticleBy: Ariel
To do Bayesian analysis, you need to start with some theories to compare. So in this post I’m going to list off some possible theories for the origin of the various organisms on earth. —– (T0) Strict...
View ArticleBy: Ariel
In this post I’m going to do a Bayesian update, based on physical evidence, on my prior probability that P(T1) = P(T2) = P(T3) = 1/3. In other words, I’m going to show that there is physical evidence...
View ArticleBy: Jeff
Ariel, What you need to do is calculate the probability of feet evolving in the posited time-frame when you start off with a single-celled organism. This is what is impossible to do at this time....
View ArticleBy: Ariel
If you assume features on significantly different organisms are homologous, you’ve assumed what you need to provide evidence for. I could also assume they’re convergent or common design. You missed the...
View ArticleBy: Jeff
Ariel, you’re confused on this point: There is no calculable probability for the evolution of feet from a single-celled organism in the posited time-frame. You can assume any probability you want. But...
View ArticleBy: Joshua
@Ariel: How do you derive the following probabilities: P (feet|evolution) = .95 P (five toes|creation) = 1/5 P (one special toe|creation) = .5 P (three/four bones per toe|creation) = 1/9 The latter...
View ArticleBy: Ariel
You’re right about where P(feet|creation) came from. The P(feet|evolution)=0.95 was an estimate. Mostly, I sat down and thought to myself, “Okay, if I looked down and had four toes, how shaken would my...
View ArticleBy: Ariel
Also–and I’m honestly curious about your answer–what would it take, from your perspective, to falsify creationism? That is, if someone came out of a forest in Africa with a strange animal, what would...
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